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Cosmetic Chest Statistics (Not 100% accurate)

Discussion in 'Server Discussion' started by Jkaebub, Mar 21, 2019.

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  1. Research is too early to determine the individual chances of cosmetics, but I have some data for Rarites. Thanks to @Jadguar, @Protactinium, @Giltong, @starguy19 for helping with the data!
    I've collected data from around 50 chests, so this isn't going to be 100% accurate.

    Here's what I've collected so far:

    In a Mythical Chest, you are guaranteed at least one Disc, one Gadget, or one Pet.

    In an Ancient Chest, you are guaranteed at least one Disc, one Gadget, or one Pet.

    There is a 31.7% chance of getting a Rare cosmetic in an Ancient Chest.

    There is a 9.5% chance of getting a Legendary cosmetic in an Ancient Chest.

    There is a 66.7% chance of getting a Rare cosmetic in a Mythical Chest.

    There is a 41.7% chance of getting a Legendary cosmetic in a Mythical Chest.

    These numbers are subject to change, so stay tuned!
     
    Posted Mar 21, 2019,
    Last edited Mar 22, 2019
    Jadguar and Snvy like this.
  2. These statistics are really cool! How did you collect them?
     
    Posted Mar 21, 2019
  3. Oh cool! I wish I had this but for bedrock chest haha!
     
    Posted Mar 22, 2019
  4. Do you also have the stats for rank upgrades/certain types of cosmetics (or do they exist anywhere)?
    Ty tho <3
     
    Posted Mar 22, 2019
  5. I appreciate the types of the percentage that you created which gives the insight having the chance of obtaining rare or legendary items. Sometimes, I opened the chests randomly and determined whether I found it or not. From my point of view, when I open my Ancient chests, it is way harder for me to find the rare and legendary items.

    Overall, the percentage that you have may not be accurate, and it usually does it randomly.
     
    Posted Mar 22, 2019
  6. Well, I logged all the chests I opened plus some friends' and POOF, there's the statistics.
     
    OP OP
    OP OP Posted Mar 22, 2019
    cerns likes this.
  7. While this works to some degree, I'm not sure it's 100% accurate. Everyone has different luck, I certainly don't get a rare in 2/3s of the mythical chests I open. If you want to continue this thread, I think it would be a good idea to put your sample size in the first post and make it clear that these are not 100% accurate and just your personal findings. Interesting none the less.
     
    Posted Mar 22, 2019
    Snvy likes this.
  8. im wondering, are these new statistics or the current ones? either way, good job on collecting these
     
    Posted Mar 22, 2019
  9. Great job on the progress :D
     
    Posted Mar 22, 2019
  10. Yes, I agree completely. Providing a sample size of the number of chests opened along with how many different players contributed to these findings would be a good idea. Maybe add this @Jaekub? Also, this data will probably never be 100 percent accurate, but getting a reasonable estimate on chest drops can only benefit players, assuming that this respective study logs enough chests. To clarify any doubt, as more and more chests are recorded the chances of obtaining a rare in a Mythical Chest will most likely go down. At this precise moment in time, the results are most likely not very accurate.
    These statistics are the most up to date ones, disregarding the actual probabilities which are kept private, of course. The results will continue to be updated as more and more chests are logged into the study; however, at this moment the statistics probably aren’t exact compared to the actual obtaination chances.
     
    Posted Mar 22, 2019
    xLeopard and Jkaebub like this.
  11. Hello! This will surely help a lot of people . I am also impressed on how you managed to make these statistics
     
    Posted Mar 28, 2019
    Jkaebub likes this.

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